Florida vs. Houston National Championship Predictions (2025 NCAA Tournament)
Just when it looked like favorites would coast through the remainder of the NCAA Tournament, the Houston Cougars pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks to earn their spot in Monday’s National Championship Game.
Since the start of the Sweet 16, including the Florida Gators’ Final Four win, favorites are 13-1 SU, with the only win by an underdog coming by Houston, who at one point had a 1.5% implied winning probability to beat Duke.
Will the Cougars win their first national championship in school history? Or will Florida cut down the nets as the best team from the best conference in college basketball history?
Here is our best bet for the 2025 College Basketball National Championship between Florida and Houston.
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No. 1 Florida (-1) vs. No. 1 Houston | O/U 141.5 (-110/-110)
Houston had entered its Final Four matchup with Duke holding 32 of its 38 opponents to fewer than 70 points. However, its most impressive defensive performance of the season was in limiting the Blue Devils, who had the most efficient offense ever in the KenPom era, to just 67 points and one field goal over the final 10:30 of the second half.
The Cougars' offensive performance on Saturday should also not be overlooked, as they made 45.5% of their 3-point attempts in shooting over a Blue Devils team that is the tallest in the nation by average height.
In addition, Houston made 10-of-12 shots against Duke's No. 1 rated defense in terms of effective field goal percentage between the end of the first half and the start of the second half. That made the Cougars' comeback even more impressive since Duke actually extended the lead in that stretch.
There is little argument that Florida faced much stiffer competition than Houston on a nightly basis in conference play coming from the rugged SEC.
However, the Gators are also fortunate to still be playing, after having just a 5.6% win probability in their second-half comeback in the Elite 8 against Texas Tech. Their Final Four game could also have turned out much differently if Johni Broome had been 100% healthy.
Do not underestimate the Cougars' homecourt advantage playing in San Antonio. Additionally, in a world of transfers and constant roster shakeups, there is something to be said about Houston returning 80% of its scoring and the eighth-most minutes from last year’s team.
Houston is 2-0 SU as an underdog and 9-3 SU against ranked teams this year, and I expect Kelvin Sampson and his Cougars will be cutting down the nets on Monday night.
Bet: Houston Moneyline (-105)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.