San Diego State vs. North Carolina: 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview & Predictions

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament previews and predictions for San Diego State vs. North Carolina.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview & Predictions: San Diego State vs. North Carolina

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this First Four NCAA Tournament matchup.

San Diego State 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Defense is the name of the game for the Aztecs, and it's an elite unit. Their defense has led them to wins over Houston, Creighton and earned them plenty of wins in conference. They don't allow anything inside, keeping opponents around the perimeter, forcing turnovers at a similarly high rate. They scheduled the eighth toughest non-con schedule so they should be prepared for whoever comes their way in the early rounds.

Now the offense. Ranking 182nd in effective field goal percentage is tough to really lean on for a deep tourney run, especially when no players shoot above 37 percent from deep. Their lacking offense leads to a 342nd recent consistency ranking. Not great. In order to generate offense, they need their defense to step up as they score a high percentage of their points from quick points off steals.

The Mountain West hasn't exactly performed well in the past but San Diego State has competed against that perception. When they made it to the Final Four a few years ago, they were dependent on their defense and did just fine. This is a weathered and experienced team with a defense that can send any of the great teams home. It's just a matter as to how much their offense limits them.

North Carolina 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

After an abysmal 1-12 Quad I record, North Carolina snuck into the NCAA Tournament thanks in large part to their seventh-ranked non-conference strength of schedule. But the thing is, it's not like they were exactly spectacular in the non-con. Going 7-5 is fine, but they ranked 47th in Bart Torvik with a defense outside the top-100. Their only top-23 win in that time was UCLA, losing to Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, and Florida.

Of course the team is anchored by RJ Davis, one of the best players in the league. His experience is everything you hope for in a tournament team while Ian Jackson and Jae'Lyn Withers add deadly perimeter shooting. As a team, their fast-paced offense leans on taking care of the ball while attempting a high number of near-proximity looks.

It also helps that they’re playing their best ball right now, ranking 14th in the Haslametrics momentum metric. Since February 15th, they've only lost to Duke, ranking 18th in Bart Torvik's efficiency metric during that time, and they almost upset a Flagg-less Duke in the ACC tournament.

The main note for UNC is what was led with – a 1-12 Quad I schedule. Playing up in class is going to be a struggle for the Tar Heels, and they don't have more than one top-40 win. They will likely only face such teams, so they'll need some luck on their side to make a run.

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Game Previews

March Madness is officially here! The 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been announced, and the teams are lining up for the Big Dance. Let's take a look at the early odds, previews, and predictions for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

EAST REGION

MIDWEST REGION

SOUTH REGION

WEST REGION

Subscribe to the BettingPros Podcast

Navigate